Developing A Rule Based Expert System For Non-Experts In Financial Decision Making

The Problem of deciding on the part of a consumer or a novice individual investor when to invest in the stock market and how to select what company’s share to buy in order to be able to get a good portfolio growth in the highly volatile stock market demands the development of expert systems for the novice investors. Many earlier studies have demonstrated how expert systems enhance the performance and decision making capability of managers and employees in an organization. This paper suggests development of a rule based expert system that will formulate rules by accumulating the knowledge of an expert in the field based on companies’ earnings per share, measurement of risk associated with each company share, ratio analysis for those selected companies, and trend analysis of performance for those selected companies over a number of years. This paper also demonstrates once the proposed artifact is created how it should be evaluated from time to time so that it can always assist novice investors in making better decisions in a highly complicated and fluctuated stock market of today.